{"id":217,"date":"2021-04-04T10:57:49","date_gmt":"2021-04-04T08:57:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/abramatic.io\/?p=217"},"modified":"2021-04-04T11:03:08","modified_gmt":"2021-04-04T09:03:08","slug":"interpreter_resultats","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/abramatic.io\/index.php\/2021\/04\/04\/interpreter_resultats\/","title":{"rendered":"Savoir interpr\u00e9ter les r\u00e9sultats d’une \u00e9tude"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Savoir interpr\u00e9ter les r\u00e9sultats d’une \u00e9tude de donn\u00e9es requiert beaucoup d’attention car il existe de nombreuses sources de biais.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

M\u00eame en ayant pris le plus grand soin dans la collecte des donn\u00e9es et leur analyse une erreur d’interpr\u00e9tation est encore possible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Prenons par exemple une \u00e9tude sur la mortalit\u00e9. Des pics apparaissent dans les recensements journaliers. La grippe ou un \u00e9pisode de chaleur peuvent en \u00eatre la cause.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Avec la pand\u00e9mie li\u00e9e \u00e0 la COVID 19 de nouveaux pics apparaissent. Sont-ils plus ou moins importants que les pr\u00e9c\u00e9dents ?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Avec 100 000 d\u00e9c\u00e8s l’impact semble important, mais cela ne tient pas compte de la comorbidit\u00e9 des personnes fragiles dont beaucoup seraient probablement d\u00e9c\u00e9d\u00e9s sans la COVID.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ainsi une analyse rigoureuse des donn\u00e9es montrerait que la surmortalit\u00e9 constat\u00e9e en 2020 n’est pas plus forte que celles constat\u00e9es lors des pics pr\u00e9c\u00e9dents. Certains pourront alors l\u00e9gitimement s’interroger sur la pertinence des mesures mises en place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

C’est une erreur d’interpr\u00e9tation. En effet le contexte de l’ann\u00e9e 2020 n’est pas comparable \u00e0 ceux des ann\u00e9es pr\u00e9c\u00e9dentes. Les gestes barri\u00e8res et le confinement ont eu un effet sur la mortalit\u00e9 en ralentissant la diffusion du virus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Comment alors comparer les effets de la COVID et ceux de la grippe. Un indicateur serait par exemple le rapport entre le nombre de d\u00e9c\u00e8s et le nombre de contaminations. Mais ce n’est pas suffisant. Il faudrait aussi comparer leurs vitesses et leurs p\u00e9riodes de diffusion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Faisons une estimation. En un an la COVID a contamin\u00e9 pr\u00e8s de 5 millions de personnes en France dont 100 mille sont d\u00e9c\u00e9d\u00e9es. Le risque de d\u00e9c\u00e8s est donc de 2%. Sans geste barri\u00e8re, le coefficient de diffusion (R) est estim\u00e9 \u00e0 1,4. De plus ce virus est virulent en toute saison. En supposant un d\u00e9lai d’incubation d’une semaine. Il faudrait 1 an pour contaminer 70 millions de personnes. Le nombre de d\u00e9c\u00e8s serait alors de 1,4 millions, plus de deux fois le nombre annuel de morts habituellement observ\u00e9s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Savoir interpr\u00e9ter les r\u00e9sultats d’une \u00e9tude de donn\u00e9es requiert beaucoup d’attention car il existe de nombreuses sources de biais. M\u00eame en ayant pris le plus grand soin dans la collecte des donn\u00e9es et leur analyse une erreur d’interpr\u00e9tation est encore possible. Prenons par exemple une \u00e9tude sur la mortalit\u00e9. Des pics apparaissent dans les recensements … <\/p>\n

Continuer la lecture de « Savoir interpr\u00e9ter les r\u00e9sultats d’une \u00e9tude »<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"\ninterpr\u00eater les r\u00e9sultats - Abramatic Consulting - Data Science Expertise<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Savoir interpr\u00e9ter les r\u00e9sultats d'une \u00e9tude de donn\u00e9es requiert beaucoup d'attention car il existe de nombreuses sources de biais.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/abramatic.io\/index.php\/2021\/04\/04\/interpreter_resultats\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"interpr\u00eater les r\u00e9sultats - 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